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To Bet or Not to Bet to Win
By Greg Melikov
To bet or not to bet to win, that is the question. The answer is not so simple. I know several professional handicappers who won't wager on a horse to win if the odds aren't 3-1 or better. I know several horseplayers who will bet odds-on favorites and be happy with the slim returns. And there are some handicappers who prefer to skip such races.
I prefer the middle ground. Since I don't bet every race, I see nothing wrong with wagering on 5-2 or 2-1 shots, especially if they open higher and take some money.
The tote board can send out varying signals. If you're at a track with a small handle, it takes less money to affect the odds than at a major track. Depending on the time to post, a single bet of $20 or $50 may cause the tote to dance a little faster.
Other angles:
If a horse is heavily bet and the odds fall below 8-5, any contender whose odds do not rise might be worth a wager.
When odds drop on the favorite drop, those on other horses should rise. If a 4-1 or 5-1 shot holds steady when the favorite drops, say from 5-2 to 7-5, that's a sign many people are buying tickets on the longer-priced animal.
If the favorite looks like a sucker horse, and you like another, the steadiness of the odds is an indication that other smart players feel the same way.
I mostly use favorites in exotic bets because that's the best play to make more than a buck or two. If a certain horse is going off at odds-on and I really believe the favorite will win, I key the selection in an exacta or trifecta.
I know quite a few bettors who play the exotics while ignoring the win bet on their top selection. Then they whine when the horse scores and sometimes pays a fair price while they lose out in the exacta or trifecta.
Surprisingly, some use a long shot in the exotics and don't bet the horse to win or place. Gee, that's when you realize the best return on your investment.
It's nice to wager against overbet favorites and collect. But you must decide which horses are vulnerable. Sometimes class is the key. Other times it might be the speed figures.
Whatever the reason, it's going to be more lucrative if your selection isn't odds-on, maybe the second or third choice or, even better, a longshot.
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